Link to the New York Times article "Satellite Spotters Glimpse Secrets , and Tell Them"
Click here to link to Charles.P.Vick's excellent summary of the NROL 21 incident on the "GlobalSecurity.org " website
Five months after the destruction of USA 193 I look back at the events in the light of a recent report by Charles.P.Vick
On December 14 2006 a Delta II launcher lifted off from Vandenburg Air Force base carrying the highly classified satellite USA193 ( NROL 21 ) Within hours of launch , the late Ivan Artner noted that the S band signals coming from the satellite were unusual and it was deduced that there had been a possible failure early in the launch campaign.
This was later to be confirmed by my images (left) when in September 2007 I managed to capture the satellite in a pass over the UK. It was apparent that the spacecraft had not deployed its solar panels. This suggested that failure took place very early on ( Later confirmed in a report in early 2008 which indicated that failure may well have been within seconds of reaching orbit! ) I estimated the overall size of the spacecraft to be no more than 4 to 5 metres.....about the size of a large car.
There followed much discussion within the satellite observer community. Hot topic was the power source of the failed satellite and the fact that decay was likely to take place in mid 2008.
It should be remembered that , at this point , amateur observers had been watching USA 193 since its launch and we had been monitoring its progress. Whilst a brief official statement issued in the spring of 2007 indicated communications problems there was no mention of decay / re-entry.
By December 2007 the orbit of USA 193 had reduced to about 300km and I got a second imaging opportunity on the evening of the 23rd. This time a little more detail could be observed , but again no solar panels.The main body of the craft could be seen together with what looked like a radar/imaging array.
At this juncture , having published my images , I commented that I seriously doubted that the US government would allow this satellite to re-enter , with the possibility that advanced , classified technology could fall into the hands of a hostile intelligence agency.
I predicted that USA 193 would be destroyed , in orbit rather than allow it to decay. My comments were met with some derision within academic circles. The destruction of a Chinese weather satellite a year earlier had prompted global condemnation. The destruction of FY 1C , although in a much higher orbit , had resulted in a cloud of debris thought to contain tens of thousands of potentially dangerous particles. The mere suggestion that the USA would attempt a similar demonstration was apparently absurd!
Experts within the satellite observer community were now estimating decay would take place towards the end of March 2008
It is now known that following our observations and public discussion concerning the possible shootdown of 193 , in late December 2007 , the Pentagon formulated a plan to deal with the situation , although , it would be more than a month before those plans were revealed.
Over the next few weeks we continued to observe the spacecraft as the orbit lowered.The satellite was of course out of control. Across the USA and Europe visual sightings were collected which allowed us to calculate and adjust orbital predictions .A number of observers were able to take time lapse images of the satellite crossing the night sky. No-one noticed any sign of tumbling or eratic behaviour . ( Later statements by the US DoD claimed the satellite was tumbling in an unpredictable manner )
In early February 2008 the Pentagon showed its hand. It released a number of statements admitting that USA 193 had failed , that it was out of control and heading back to Earth. There were grave concerns over the unused hydrazine fuel , which we were told was in a frozen state. 193 had become a deadly toxic ice cube and could crash down , causing widespead damage over the area of a football field , releasing highly toxic fumes !
At this point the media frenzy started.There were many alarmist reports about the possibility that remains of the spacecraft might crash down on populated areas.
This prompted The Pentagon to play its ace card.......To save the world from environmental disaster 193 would be shot down !
The rest , as they say , is history ! A quick internet search will throw up hundreds of articles about the "shootdown" , the reasons why and the resultant debris that was released. In terms of technical achievement there is no doubt the exercise was a remarkable success. But cynical though it may sound , my own opinion is that USA 193 was destroyed for just two reasons . To ensure that none of the advanced technology , used in its construction , fell into the wrong hands...... and as a show of force . A demonstration to the rest of the world that the US could remove a satellite from orbit ...........and that the Missile Defense System is alive and well.
USA 193 "Life and death of a spy sat " Click here to read Dr Marco Langbroek's blow by blow account of the event
Lake Erie Crew Describes Satellite Shot (DefenseLink News Article )
Classified Satellite Failure Led To Latest SBIRS Delay . Aviation Week Carried this article on October 15 2007 . In it Gary Payton, deputy under secretary of the Air Force for space programs is obviously refering to USA 193 ( the un named satellite ) and calls it " a useless ice cube." !! This was more than two months before the public were told about the dying satellite , which by January 2008 had mysteriously become a " toxic ice cube"
It seems strange that someone in his position overlooked the fact that the hydrazine tank would not only survive re-entry but would also present a toxic threat.
From these images and his knowledge of spacecraft design ,Global Security expert Charles P Vick came up with this concept drawing.
The Satellite
Little is known about the spacecraft itself although the image above , an exploded view of my capture from September 2007 , appears to show the main body......a cube of about three to four metres on the longest axis . It also shows what seems to be a radar array. Notice the absence of any solar panels.
Space Invaders .... Guy Gugliotta's take on the shootdown , featured on The Atlantic.com website
A target of opportunity
NASA White paper reveals fuel tank was not full after all! Read Yousaf Butt's report here.....
OPERATION BURNT FROST
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